Ray here from DinarGuruNews...good article here from Eagle1!
As we debate the RV/GCR, let us not forget the last RV -- which was the lesser known Kuwait RV (KWD)-- which occurred in 1993. The (KWD) had been trading for the last 20 years or so...so why has the Iraqi Dinar taken so long? Perhaps we will all find out very soon.....! Have a great day! ~Ray
Good afternoon, Family:
When I posted my last commentary certain events were in play which have resulted in changes to my perspective, and some developments in the news have created some concern regarding the long-term future of the IQD.
Before I get too far along, however, let me make it clear that the opinions I'm about to express are based on some personal experiences when I was in international banking so bear that in mind.
Obviously the entire RV/GCR has been a very fluid event for a long time. We have all seen a fistful of events transpire which have led us to believe that our Blessing is imminent. Nothing I've seen or heard changes that, either.
However, for some months there has been a background current of expectation that we were going to see things break in a two-step process beginning with a "general RV" consisting of the revaluation of all of the major currencies, (and available only for a short time in order to accommodate private placements and private exchanges) followed by a Global Reset which would make all of the restructured currencies (both gainers and losers) available to the general public.
That plan has apparently gone by the wayside.
As expressed to me by some folks involved in the process, there are so many individuals and institutions watching this and praying for even a few minutes' advantage in order to do some massive currency buying (or selling) that it becomes a ready-made boondoggle, and an opportunity for extensive double-dipping with resulting utter chaos.
When we first began to hear about all of the "baskets" of currencies that would be released in orderly and systematic fashion some two and a half years ago, a fairly successful effort was in place to keep the identities and valuations of the respective currencies confidential.
As the months have turned into years, any idea has long since been abandoned that the currencies with their numbers would remain a secret. Many individuals have been poised for well over a year to take advantage of any gap between one or more currencies revaluing before the rest.
For that reason the IMF, its controlling board and its associated central bankers have ditched any plans for a sequential rollout.
This past weekend any nations, whose new currency valuations had yet to be released to the IMF, did release those numbers to the IMF.
I don't have any solid proof of this yet so let me simply report the following as undocumented. According to two separate sources, I'm told that the currencies will be released to FOREX and be allowed to float rather liberally for some unspecified period of time "until they achieve market stability," after which "a managed float" of plus or minus 2% would be implemented.
Most of you will recall what happened with the Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) when it was revalued in 1993. It came out at $2.47 and within a week was in the $9.00 range. Over the next three weeks, it settled back into a range of $3.50 - $3.62. That's where the currency has traded for the past 20 years.
If the IQD comes out at the $3+ rate we've been hearing behind the scenes for many months, I would expect it to react similarly and perhaps settle in a $4+ range or even higher. Some of you will recall the report I published some three years ago in which both the Frankfurt and Paris FOREX exchanges were showing an FRA for the IQD of $7.62. Could the rate go there? Possibly, but I'm not expecting that -- at least in the near term -- as a stable exchange rate.
There's another item to consider with these currencies, and that's the future of the VND. Back in 1968-1969, prior to sanctions being imposed with a program rate, the VND was valued at roughly $2.23. No one I've spoken to even suggests that this currency will emerge from 30-plus years of operating at a sanctioned and seriously devalued rate and immediately return to that number.
For well over a year, the projection from major economists and traders has been in the $.45 - $.49 range. We've seen those numbers increase in recent weeks and months, but here again we have a whole lot of fluidity in play.
I will say that if the VND comes out anywhere near those numbers, it won't stay there for long! Vietnam's economy is a whole lot stronger today than it was 30 years ago, and the asset-backing they have for their currency greatly transcends what was published in those bygone years.
Now, let me get to my place of concern for Iraq's future economic stability. Back in the mid-1980's when I was in international banking, I was invited to participate in what appeared to be a rather profitable venture with the Central Bank of Syria.
The margins being offered were extremely generous compared to the normal trading ranges we saw in platform and metals trading. I've learned throughout the years that when you see something that looks too good to be true, you'd better do your due diligence and check out every last detail before you get yourself too involved.
In this case, the more I dug and the more I learned, the more convinced I became that this venture was being set up by the then-governor of the Central Bank of Syria as one big con job and a scam among scams.
The governor of Syria's Central Bank was none other than the Iraqi, Dr. Ahmed Abdel Hadi Chalabi. He was a friend of Iraq's Ba'athist leader, Saddam Hussein, and a friend to Syria's Ba'athist president, Hafez al-Assad.
The would-be "profitable venture" proposed by Chalabi would have scammed hundreds of millions of dollars for the Assad regime. As I discovered the details of this so-called "venture," I notified the various bankers, brokers and traders with whom I was associated that anything connected to Chalabi or Syria's Central Bank needed to be "avoided with prejudice."
For a time, this same Chalabi ingratiated himself to the Bush 43 administration in 2003 and 2004 in hopes of becoming Iraq's interim leader prior to their electing a new government in the post-Saddam era.
When he was passed over and Allawi was chosen, he began traveling among the ex-patriate Iraqi communities in the U.S. lobbying and politicking to be supported as Iraq's new PM. At the same time he began bad-mouthing President Bush and the Bush administration. President Bush didn't take long to figure out that Chalabi wasn't the kind of leader for Iraq that the U.S. needed to support in any way.
I share all of this because there seems to be more than a passing chance that he could be chosen as Iraq's new PM for the new GOI.
Should that take place, my sharing these things should be "a word to the wise." Don't plan on hanging onto any IQD as a long-term investment if we see a Chalabi administration.
If you think Maliki is bad, don't expect Chalabi to be any better. Again, this is an opinion based on facts that go back to the mid-1980's and again during the first GW Bush term. Could the man have actually wised up? So far I haven't seen any evidence of it. That said, keep a careful eye on the events that transpire in the next couple of weeks.
That's my nickel's worth for today. My counsel to everyone continues to be to pray, decree and declare the will and purposes of God in all that is unfolding.
. We are, after all, recipients of the greatest transfer of financial blessing in the history of the human race.
We know what Father God has said concerning the unfolding events.
Let's not allow our mouths to confess anything contrary to what He is saying!
Blessings on you. Eagle1